Unlocking investment in Africa’s energy future
Renewable energy potential across Africa is 50 times greater than the anticipated electricity demand of the entire planet by 2040. The key to unlocking this potential is equitable capital.
April 20, 2023
The government of Kenya plans to transition to 100% renewable electricity generation by 2030.
This ambitious commitment signals a defining moment for the East African nation. It also has global implications. If, as a planet, we cannot swiftly wean ourselves off fossil fuels, we have no chance of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoiding the most catastrophic impacts of climate breakdown.
In a speech delivered last month at the Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue, Kenya’s President William Ruto noted that his nation’s untapped solar and wind potential is rated as “super abundant,” which means it has more than 1,000 times the technical potential of current energy demand. Kenya plans on taking a “quantum leap” toward a 100-gigawatt electric grid powered exclusively by renewable energy sources by 2040.
Ruto also noted that renewable energy potential across Africa is 50 times greater than the anticipated electricity demand of the entire planet by 2040. All but one (Egypt) of Africa’s 54 countries are rated as “super abundant” or “abundant.”
Listening to President Ruto, it’s not difficult to imagine Kenya establishing itself as the green energy hub of Africa — and Africa rising to become a green energy hub for the world.
Across the Mediterranean, however, not a single European country enjoys a “super abundant” or “abundant” rating in renewable energy potential. A 2021 report by London-based think tank Carbon Tracker revealed that European nations, classified as either “replete” or “stretched,” fare relatively poorly in this regard. Central Europe has the world’s lowest renewable energy potential ratings, alongside Japan and South Korea.
Given the energy-related consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and factors related to climate change, including a growing exodus of climate migrants from Africa and the Middle East — it seems a natural next step that a “stretched” Europe and a renewables-rich Africa would pursue partnership.
Historically, the transfer or exchange of Africa’s natural resources to Europe has not been equitable. President Ruto noted that 14 global powers convened at the Berlin Conference of 1884-85 (also known as the Congo Conference and the West African Conference of Berlin) to, in Ruto’s words, “divide Africa among themselves and carve up our land and our people as they saw fit.”
As renewable energy becomes increasingly cost competitive, interest in exploring cross-continental energy partnerships is rising. Indeed, Africa and Europe have much to gain from collaborating on energy. With the right investment and planning, Africa's abundant renewable energy resources will expand access to electricity to 600 million of the continent's 1.5 billion people who currently lack it, contribute to sustainable development across Africa and help meet Europe’s energy demands. Europe has the capital to unlock Africa’s abundant potential, partnering with African nations and leaders to catalyze development of local capital markets and forge a sustainable future for both continents.
At a time when (nearly) all parties acknowledge that our fossil fuel-powered status quo can no longer stand, mutually beneficial cooperation between Africa and Europe is both a pressing need and compelling opportunity.
Conscious of the opportunities of bilateral and multilateral engagement — and the pitfalls of not doing so — The B Team and key partners, including the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, Africa-Europe Foundation and World Resources Institute, are co-organizing an Africa-Europe Earthshot.
This collaborative effort will gather leaders, experts and energy stakeholders from Africa and Europe, with a shared goal of bridging finance gaps and facilitating climate win-wins for Africa, Europe and the world. (The Africa-Europe Earthshot follows last year’s inaugural Europe’s Energy Earthshot, which brought together stakeholders from 50 countries to advance solutions for a just and inclusive clean energy future for Europe.)
The Africa-Europe Earthshot will kick off at Ibrahim Governance Weekend, to be held in Nairobi on April 28-30, 2023, and continue over the summer in Paris, where French President Emmanuel Macron will host the Summit for a New Global Financial Pact. The Earthshot then returns to Kenya in early September for the President Ruto-hosted Africa Climate Action Summit.
There is no shortage of pipeline-ready projects to support across Africa. The key to unlocking Africa’s rich renewable resources is equitable capital. Mia Mottley, the first woman Prime Minister of Barbados and a vocal advocate for the developing world, observes that “rich countries are able to borrow at interest rates of between 1% and 4%, while it’s around 14% for poorer countries.”
Energy cooperation between Africa and Europe is more than a nice-to-have, it’s a time-sensitive imperative. So how do we bridge the continental divide and catalyze collaboration?
African and European leaders in the public and private sectors, as well as multilateral and regional development banks, must work together to identify and improve policies, regulations and good governance requirements that are needed to unlock access to capital for green projects. This is crucial for driving investment in the right direction.
Unlocking Africa’s own capital (e.g., money tied up in pensions) and strengthening local capital markets will be especially important for accelerating an equitable energy transformation. Likewise, Africa’s carbon markets need to provide credible, rigorous means of identifying high-integrity carbon credits and ensure that investment finds its way to those delivering real, verifiable climate benefits. Leaders must work to build trust in the system.
Next, African and European leaders and development banks must work together to shift the often outdated risk perceptions of investing in African countries and seize opportunities for packaging bankable and fundable projects, particularly around green manufacturing. Real progress will depend on meaningful investment in Africa’s renewable energy infrastructure and its youth workforce, which is projected to be the largest in the world by 2050.
Lastly but importantly, multilateral and regional development banks, bilateral development finance institutions and philanthropic organizations have a crucial role to play in mobilizing the private institutional capital needed to scale up renewable energy generation in Africa and across the world.